• Currently

    Reported at Lexington, Jim Kelly Field Airport, NE
    5:35 PM CST SUN MAY 28 2017
  • 77°F25°C
  • Partly Cloudy
    Partly Cloudy
  • Feels Like:78°F25.3°CDew Point:43°F6°CHumidity:30% Winds:WNW 6 mph 10 kph Pressure:30 in1016 hPaVisibility:10.00 miles16090.00 meters
  • Area Forecast Discussion

603 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Scattered showers have developed across central and west central
Nebraska this afternoon. These are aided by a weak perturbation that
is best visualized on the 305K isentropic surface. RAP and HRRR
soundings also show as much as 500 J of CAPE for western parts of
the area, so I`ve included a chance of thunder for areas along and
west of Highway 281. This activity is expected to dissipate late
this afternoon as we lose diurnal heating and as this feature moves
to our southeast.

Later tonight, another such wave will move from north to south
across the area, bringing us another chance for light showers. This
should exit our Kansas counties tomorrow morning. Overall, any rain
accumulation will be minimal.

Tomorrow afternoon, expect another day of breezy northwest winds and
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Overall, there is little change in this forecast from the previous
packages.

Chances for thunderstorms return to north-central Kansas on
Tuesday as a warm front starts lifting northward and stalls in
that area. Models are showing 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE in that
vicinity along with around 40 kts of bulk shear. Therefore a
strong storm isn`t out of the question. The main uncertainty is
how far north storms can make it. The GFS certainly looks to keep
the best of the instability in central Kansas.

Our best chance for thunderstorms arrives late Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning as this front lifts northward,
aided by an intensifying low-level jet. While this doesn`t look
particularly favorable for severe weather, the GFS does show
1500-2000 j/kg of MUCAPE and a 50 kt low-level jet to work with so
this trend will need to be monitored by upcoming shifts.

Temperature-wise, we will see seasonably warm conditions. Highs in
the 70s and low 80s...possibly reaching the mid 80s Thursday and
Friday as we stay in warm southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Isolated to scattered showers have dotted the area this afternoon
with the next round of potential rain showers and possibly a
thunderstorm arriving later this evening and into tonight as an
upper disturbance crosses the plains. With the potential for
convection, have went with a VCSH in the tafs at this time. The
gusty winds of today will subside tonight but increase again on
Memorial in deep mixing.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Fay